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Update at 6:00 am Many Storm and Flood Advisories for the Area – National Weather Service Outlook for Thursday, January 9th for Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis and Michiana Brought to You by SIP Coffee House

National Weather Outlook

National Radar Mosaic
Friday – Saturday Excessive Rainfall Outlook

National Weather Discussion

  • Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather will ramp up on Friday in the central U.S. ahead of a developing low pressure system
  • Light snow and freezing rain are possible for portions of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes
  • Colder than average for the West Coast to Northern Plains and much warmer than average in the eastern half of the nation
  • Heavy snow once again possible in higher elevations of the Northwest Friday into Saturday

An upper-level trough over the western half of the contiguous U.S. will strengthen tonight and Friday as additional energy comes in. A frontal system at the surface will move slowly through Friday as the trough develops, before both features move eastward this weekend. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will flow into the vicinity of the fronts, leading to
increasing rain chances today and especially on Friday for the Southern Plains into much of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. After rainfall of up to an inch in those areas today into tonight, rainfall totals are forecast to be 3 to 5 inches on Friday and Friday night in a swath from far northeastern Texas to eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, and
southwestern Missouri. Thus, there is a Moderate Risk of flash flooding in those areas for Friday. Flood and Flash Flood Watches are in effect across much of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana ahead of the rainfall. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked an Enhanced Risk of severe weather on Friday for parts of the Southern Plains to Lower
Mississippi Valley.

On the backside of this system, light to moderate snow is expected in the Intermountain West and Rockies today, spreading eastward tonight and Friday. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is possible in portions of the Southern/Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and northeastward into the Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday after
the cold front drops the temperatures. Freezing rain amounts of over a tenth of an inch are currently forecast for parts of Missouri into southeastern Iowa.

The strong front will also lead to significant temperature anomalies across the country. Ahead of the front, high temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from the Plains into the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys today, with low temperatures Friday morning more than 30 degrees above normal over a large part of that area–widespread record
high minimum temperatures are expected to be set over the next couple of days. The Eastern Seaboard will join in on the warmth on Friday. Colder than average temperatures are forecast for the western half of them country, however, due to the first front and a secondary cold front which is expected to reinforce the cold air. By Friday, high temperatures in the single digits are forecast for the north-central tier of the nation.

Another low pressure system is forecast to approach the Northwest on Friday, which combined with more upper-level energy will lead to heavy precipitation. Rain is forecast for lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest, with snow elsewhere from the Cascades to the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies. Through Friday night, heavy snow of over 2
feet is expected in higher elevations of the Cascades, with the Northern Rockies expecting snow totals in excess of a foot.

Milwaukee

Light freezing rain and drizzle will be possible this morning as surfaces are below freezing. This could cause a few slick spots especially in shaded areas. Temperatures will gradually warm above freezing from south to north this morning with any freezing rain/drizzle ending by the afternoon.
The potential is increasing for impactful winter weather across the region between Friday night and Saturday night. Right now, it looks like a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will overspread mainly far southeastern Wisconsin Friday evening into Friday night. Some travel impacts are likely from this activity. There may be a short break Saturday morning, before more widespread snow overspreads the region Saturday afternoon, continuing into Saturday night. This should mainly be snow, though a mix is possible over far southeastern Wisconsin. While it is still too early to talk exact amounts, it does appear as if some locations could see potentially significant snowfall Saturday afternoon and evening.!
Chances for accumulating snow across southern Wisconsin Friday night through Saturday night with potential for greater than 4 inches and even potential for greater than 6 inches. The northwest could see a strong cutoff of snow based upon where the system sets up. In addition Friday night should see a period of mixed precipitation potentially including rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow.
A Lakeshore Flood Advisory is in effect for Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties from 3 AM to Noon Thursday with wave heights as high as 9 to 11 feet. The highest waves are expected from 6 AM to Noon with south to southeast winds gusting to 30 to 35 mph.
Milwaukee Live Radar

Chicago

A very light area of spotty rain showers is moving northeast and could result in very spotty light freezing rain where temperatures are just under freezing. Temperatures continue to warm quickly, but some slick spots could develop.
We continue to monitor the potential for a significant winter storm across the region Friday night through Saturday night. The potential exists for significant impacts from freezing rain, sleet, and snow across parts of our area, although confidence on the exact placement and magnitude of threats remains low. Check back for updates as we continue to refine the forecast.
South Winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected today. Some isolated gusts up to 55 mph are also possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect for areas mainly south of I-80 from 10 AM to 6 PM CST today.
A Flood Watch is in effect for locales along and southeast of I-55 for Friday Night and into Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts, appear possible, which could lead to flooding of low lying and other flood prone areas in addition to river rises through the weekend and into next week. In addition, a period of torrential rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Stay tuned for additional updates as this portion of the forecast is refined.
A strong storm system is expected to bring a period of strong and gusty north to northeast winds to the area Friday night and into Saturday. These winds may build waves to 12 to 16 feet, occasionally to 20 feet which could result in a period of significant shoreline flood and beach erosion.
Chicago Radar

Indianapolis

Windy and warmer Today with rain starting this evening, warm temperatures and heavy rain for Friday and Saturday. Now is the time to review flood preparedness and safety: http://www.weather.gov/flood #inwx Share this info with your family and friends! Never drive into Flood water, and remind everyone to Turn around, Don’t Drown! #TADD
Indianapolis Radar

Michiana

A complex, major winter storm will provide a period of exceptionally wet weather. Rain develops tonight as an initial frontal wave ejects from Kansas into the Upper Midwest. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur Friday night into Saturday as another frontal wave tracks from Texas into northern Indiana. Widespread, extreme rainfall amounts will most likely lead to flooding issues this weekend and into next week. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer today and Friday. Highs will reach into the 40s today and into the upper 40s to middle 50s on Friday. Colder air begins to infiltrate Saturday and Saturday night. This may lead to freezing rain, mixed at times with snow and/or sleet. With regards to the wintery mix late this weekend, confidence is low. Amounts of ice and snow, as well as the area of greatest impact area remains uncertain at this time.
Michiana Radar


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